One thing is for sure, power is no longer hiding behind lofty promises or comforting illusions! With Donald Trump acting as an autocrat both at home and on the international stage, power stands openly in the spotlight. As one of his key instigators, Stephen Miller, argues on CNN: ‘We live in a world, in the real world, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world that have existed since the beginning of time.’
How can countries – and their inhabitants – without the might of superpowers like the US and China (ethically) brace themselves against this rising application of raw power? To begin with, it is worth recognising that US muscle-flexing may be more a symptom of a superpower in decline than a hegemon at the top of its game, as Janan Ganesh aptly illustrates in the Financial Times. In today’s multipolar world, the United States must increasingly contend with the strength of its adversaries, particularly China. An awareness of the (psychological) dynamics of this reality is a vital first step, as it is likely to usher the world into a turbulent era shaped by what I have termed ‘defensive power’ – based on my analysis of how elites in decline resist change. Anxious about its geopolitical status, the US political apparatus will most certainly seek to preserve the country’s position at every opportunity, which, given its unrivalled military strength, may frequently have unsavoury outcomes. Nonetheless, the US is unlikely to retain absolute control over events. It will often be compelled to find compromise with others, thus buying (temporary) peace in exchange for remaining a force to be reckoned with – even if somewhat diminished.
To navigate this process, politicians, businesses, and citizens of small and intermediate powers should consider the dynamics between power and counterpower. Miller is undoubtedly aware of this, too, though he conveniently omits counterpower – and resistance – from his so-called iron laws. Yet autocrats are, if anything, acutely aware of the power of collective action, as demonstrated by Putin’s and Xi’s relentless efforts to stifle any opposition capable of mobilising change. They know history is replete with examples of the ‘weak’ uniting to form a significant counterforce. Unsurprisingly, then, Canada’s prime-minister Mark Carney’s advocacy of strengthening connections in his speech at Davos resonated with many, particularly in Europe. The many need not to be left to the whims of the powerful!
However, in order to strengthen alliances capable of mounting a robust response to superpowers, Carney’s encouraging words are not sufficient, especially as it has been rightly pointed out that he is somewhat late in acknowledging that the rights-based global system was always something of an illusion. There are countless instances of the US and its Western allies prioritising their own interests above human rights and sustainability. Consequently, there is a responsibility for citizens, politicians, and business representatives in Europe, Canada, and elsewhere – the many that embody Carney’s abstract reference to intermediate (and small) powers. To have any hope of constituting a united, global response to the powerful, they must begin with profound ethical soul-searching:
- Only by confronting their (historical) ethical blind spots and sincerely listening to the ethical concerns of potential allies elsewhere in the world, such as partners in Brazil, South Africa or Indonesia, can Western state officials, businesses, and citizens establish common ground – stripped of the lofty promises and illusions that have disproportionately served Western interests. In this process, it is equally vital to consider how to preserve the agreed common ground. How should one respond, for instance, when partners deviate from established ethical standards, such as compromising human rights? Regardless of how stringent new alliance agreements may be, unwavering adherence is essential. Failure to uphold these commitments will erode credibility both among members and with external actors – mirroring the double standards of Western alliances.
- Given that the world’s superpowers cannot be circumvented, renewed alliances comprising members of small and intermediate powers must rethink how to interact with one superpower – and former ally – that continues to present itself as omnipresent, yet may be driven by status anxiety, and another superpower that increasingly feels empowered. Nor should they ignore the particularities of the Russians. To determine where, in this constellation, compromise with superpowers is possible, a strong understanding of their differing psychologies will be paramount, as well as a shared understanding of how to ethically position the own alliances – both by standing firm and knowing when to yield somewhat to (declining) superpowers in the name of (mutual) dependence.
- Ethical soul-searching to find common ground within alliances and joint positioning vis-à-vis superpowers will be equally important when considering how best to respond to superpowers’ attempts to undermine the advancement of uniting the many, as they will inevitably seek to fracture this unity. To stand firm, ethical transparency will be essential. Only by honestly reflecting on how to balance the immediate costs faced within alliance members’ respective societies (when targeted by superpowers) with the long-term benefits of defending the interest of the many against the few, can small and middle powers shape an effective response to the exercise of raw power.
Establishing new alliances – and the ethical soul-searching that accompanies them – will undoubtedly be a daunting task, given the broad diversity of interests involved. Nonetheless, I believe it is not impossible when global humanity is considered the shared goal, not merely as an illusion but with tangible steps towards it. Clearly, any (contrary) thoughts or suggestions on how to advance this in greater detail and/or what additional (ethical) paths new alliances can explore will further this debate.
Picture by Andrew Wulf on Unsplash